"We find that the future of IP Media servers will continue to grow along with the demand for more robust infrastructure and demand for smarter IP Media caching servers and other Quality of Service (QoS) solutions.

"Growing from about $1.1 billion in 1999, to about $4.5 billion in 2003, the worldwide IP Media server market will grow as a part of the expansion of both narrowband and broadband networks.

"While the demand for broadband continues to be strong, with broadband connections in total growing from a little over 2.4 million in 1999 to an estimated 22 million-plus in 2003, the really big market continues to be served by dialup IV narrowband" (28.8-100 Kbps) modems. Narrowband is the new target of many of the most influential companies in the IP Media (or "streaming media") market.

Narrowband Too

"Yahoo! Broadcast, for example, while owning one of the biggest media hosting sites on the Internet, clearly states that it intends to make everyone's access time to IP Media shorter and easier to use, not just broadband subscribers. RealNetworks, in its announcement of Version 8 software, clearly attaches its strategy to not only broadband (over 100 Kbps by our definition) but also to users with reception in the 20-100 Kbps range. In its new software releases, both RealNetworks and Microsoft are clearly including better codecs (media compression/ decompression algorithms) whereby all Web users can access dynamic media with far greater ease than a year ago.

Media Creation Tools

"Media tool makers also have jumped on this bandwagon. Companies like Macromedia (Shockwave) [and Flash, and Adobe (Live Motion) - editor] and WaveGlide have developed low bandwidth animation (development) tools that use bandwidth more efficiently than ever before."

So in spite of the fact that the majority of Net users don't have broadband and won't have it for some time, these newer streaming media types make high quality streaming media available now. We asked Schultz if there are other rays of sunshine breaking through the steaming media clouds. We spoke with him the day after RealNetworks signed on with AOL:

Codecs Improving

"You look at the announcement that AOL is using Real 8," commented Schultz. "You'll see a lot more of that. That not only applies to DSL and broadband. It also applies to people with 56.6 standard modems, because the codecs are getting a lot better. They're really getting much, much better each year - you see big improvements in the sub-200 kbps range. That means in another 18-24 months there's a good chance that what you get over DSL today, over a low-level DSL, you could be getting over standard dial-up. That's how fast the technology is moving."